Based on the radar data Taiwan's Aviation Safety Council (ASC)
originally said that CI 611 broke into four large pieces.
The ASC apparently has hinted that the original interpretation
of the radar, whether right or wrong, was hasty. According to the
Taipei Times of May 31:
"The council later said it needed to double-check radar data
to verify whether the aircraft had indeed disintegrated into four
pieces."
China has now made their radar data available. The excerpt below
refers to "the last eight seconds." That is exactly what was
reported (but it was filtered first through a television
journalist and then through a print journalist).
Officials from the Civil Aviation General Administration of China
will deliver the desired radar data at Beijing airport.
The television reported that Liu Yajun, a Chinese aviation official,
told reporters in Beijing the radar data contained the ill-fated
plane's altitude and the direction of the flight at the last moments.
"The reading from the radar screen indicated the plane flying up
twice and down once ... in the last eight seconds," Liu said.
Finally, there was another article in which Hsieh Ching-hui,
who, if I correctly understand the article, is the leader
of a government task force, raised some questions about the
condition of the a/c based on its sale price.
As to the matter of the aircraft's age, Hsieh said that the plane
had operated for over 22 years and that China Airlines intended
to sell the plane to a domestic airline firm in Thailand for
US$1.45 million, which is considered a relatively low price.
"Is such an old plane appropriate for use as a passenger jet? The
age of the plane and its low sales price seem to imply that the
plane was in bad condition," Hsieh wondered aloud.
Kaptin M: I have tried to fit the radar data to four trajectories.
I cannot do so without the presence of severe weather. But the
ASC has said that there wasn't any.