flightglobal had a great poll a few weeks back:
What will fly first?
787 33%
A400M 21%
Pigs 46%
Total Votes: 4534
Poll ended on: 06 August 2009
i think that says it all
on a serious note though, Boeing thought they had the problem sorted, then realised it was worse than they thought. Now they have announced a new schedule, although the schedule has no dates, so at best its a guess. Even in their own press release they said they have included a "schedule margin" suggesting they don't honestly know. And if they have yet to make the ammendments to the aircraft, how will they know it will work.
They may have done computer simulations, but if computer simulations were accurate the 787 project wouldn't be nearly two years behind schedule