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Old 27th August 2009 | 22:59
  #20 (permalink)  
john_tullamarine
Fleet Manager
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Joined: Apr 2001
: ATPL
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From: various places .....
There are an increasing number of people in my company insisting we only stop for fire/ eng failure/ or predictive windshear (and don't like thinking about the variable unsafe to fly area).

The problem I see is the inference that we can set up the RTO planning in anticipation of a guaranteed outcome - ie black and white.

Not the case.

MOST times, if the T/O is rejected up to a margin below V1, the RTO will be successful. MOST times, if the T/O is continued beyond V1, the T/O will be successful.

The bit in the middle has a LOT of caveats attached to its successful outcome. For routine civil airline operations we don't have the time luxury to discuss and try to memorise a tome of information for this takeoff .. we work on the basis of reasonable historical probabilities skewed to the most likely means of achieving a successful outcome.

.. but that doesn't mean that the operation cannot come unstuck if you are near to the tail of the distribution curve on the day ...
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