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Old 27th Aug 2009, 19:00
  #79 (permalink)  
SIGMET nil
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
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In case there's still someone on this thread interested in the original and quite interesting weather case presented by Just Wondering in his first post:

This is the sounding taken at Castor Bay in Northern Ireland, about 160 km or 100 miles upstream from Glasgow. I think it was fairly representative also for Glasgow that day. 50 knots southwesterly winds were present at 3000 ft amsl and higher, separated from the surface layer only by a weak 1.5 K inversion. Wherever this inversion was erased or weakened, the upper wind would enhance local surface gusts, such as in Glasgow Bishopton, a few miles away from the airport, where gusts above 30 knots were recorded during the afternoon of the 23rd, if I recall correctly.

So the author of the first TAF might be forgiven for including winds that didn't materialize and the author of the second TAF might have been a bit daring to let the gusts out of his forecast. If some chance gust had destroyed a piece of equipment I wouldn't have wanted to hear the comments. Either way as a forecaster you'll be hanged.

You might want to check this map of 850 hpa/5000 ft/1500 m to verify that Glasgow and Castor Bay near Belfast were comparably located with regard to the pressure field at noon that day.

My point being, both TAFs were justifyable and if seen without including the "bigger picture" could have led to a disappointing decision.
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