Both the above posts are true, but
... you're right to say that in times of high unemployment that more people consider going into the forces than would otherwise do. I faced a similar situation when I left school in Coventry in 83, which was dying on its arse (again).. but, in fairness, I had been keen on joining the RAF for a number of years before that, but the lack of other opportunities at the time certainly focused the mind on the alternatives and helped me to make my mind up.
So, yes, this years figures are inevitably going to look better/be spun better than last years.
However, it is also correct that since Options, on the whole the employment situation was not too bad in the outside world, by comparison with what had gone before. What hasnt changed, but may change a little now, is the PVR rate. If anything, as opportunities on the outside got better, those with portable skills - I remember a steady stream of enlisted Army, Navy and RAF with the basis of good IT Systems skills, particularly in CBM leaving Northwood and securing themselves good jobs. Hard won experience that is difficult to replace, even in this small sector, when you consider that at the time with Herrick and Telic, the systems in those theatres still needed supporting... which just led to more dependence on the contractors like myself. That exit rate may slow down now, people may elect to stay in longer than what they would have done, but the overall effect will still arguably be the same - as many will leave as will join, at least.
That still leaves the deficit to be addressed. Now, I am not in any way belittling the contribution made by those in uniform from the commonwealth. No way. They have more than proved themselves. But it is a poor indictment on recruitment and retention that in these post empire days with nowhere near as large a global projection required that we would still need to turn to overseas recruits to make up the numbers (Ghurkas excepted, naturally). As I said, dont get me wrong, I'm glad they do it, that they have the bravery and the dedication to do what they do, knowing what awaits them, ie tours of Afghan. But where are our own new generation?
I left in 99 due to several things; promotion had slowed to a stop; the trade was being rationalised, posts chopped, FI tours coming round every 18 months (I know, not the same as now, but at the time, remember it in context) accomodation was utter dogs**t (especially at Stanmore) andI thought I could do better by taking my chances in the outside world rather than waiting another 7 years for my pension.
So, I went for it and havent regretted it, not a bit. My trade has become a pale shadow of itself and I'm glad I've been an outsider looking in where JPA is concerned to mention but two things. At 1* and above, all three services are utterly bereft of leadership, being run by the same pension chasing, empire building fools who I couldnt abide 10 years ago.
Now, so many things are outsourced or civilianised and done badly, worse than they ever were when they done by people in military uniform, no matter how much we used to grumble about it. Its gone far too far.
The biggest problem we face now is that although we know the cold war is over, we still havent worked out what we are about and how to equip ourselves going forward. And what we can and cant do. Time to start punching at our weight instead of kidding ourselves we can repeatedly punch above it all the time.
But, I dont think anyone has the political will and forsight to do it. Too many vested interests, empires being consolidated; things are being done at MOD level mainly for the benefit of the inhabitants of Main Building itself rather than for the men and women who serve. The single service chiefs still think in stovepipes rather than in true joint ops terms, certainly when it comes to procurement. Its mad, it needs root and branch reform from the top to the bottom and it needs true leadership, which Dannatt excepted, it has not seen for a long time.
Meantime, the situation just gets worse, the covenant lies in tatters and we are burying far too many young brave men and women who deserve better than what they're getting and will never get a chance. For what?