1) Traffic data for Jul-2009 from the Air Transport Association of America (ATA) reveals some early signs of improvements, with member carriers seeing an uptick in traffic (RPMs) in the month. But US airlines are by no means out of the woods, with the US aviation industry still seeing heavy price discounting. An interesting barometer will be the release of ATA yield data for Jul-2009 shortly. Jun-2009 yields showed further deterioration from May-2009.
RPM reductions milder in Jul-2009 than in 1H2009, but still choppy
During Jul-2009, ATA member traffic (RPM) reductions were generally much milder than in the previous six months of the year. While Pacific RPMs growth showed the most drastic improvement (from -11.9% in Jun-2009 to -1.3% in Jul-2009), the Pacific was the first market to deteriorate last year, with traffic already falling in Mar-2008. By Jul-2008, Pacific RPMs were already down 4.5%, so the decreases are now compounding.
2) BAA stated its UK airports last month had their “best underlying group figures since September 2008”, with Heathrow’s network strength “remaining evident”. BAA's UK airports handled a total of 12.7 million passengers in Jun-2009, down 5.9% year-on-year, the highest figure for nine months, setting aside the distortion in April and March due to the timing of Easter.
The airport operator stated that although all key markets were lower in June than a year earlier, all markets (except European Charter) improved on their performance for the last six months. Domestic traffic was 8.1% down in June and European Scheduled by 2.8%. North Atlantic traffic was 9.4% lower, but Other Long Haul was almost level with last year at -0.2%.
Of the individual airports, Heathrow recorded a decline of 3.1%, stronger than the other airports “because of its hub status and the resultant growth in transfer passengers”. Gatwick traffic was 7.6% down year-on-year, while Stansted’s passenger traffic was down 11.5%.
Some people are naturally optimist, others are not. Although the figures are not fantastic they are showing underlying improvements. Couple to this that Airline growth has been suppressed since 9/11 due to SARS and the current situation, when the World economies recover, then so will the Airlines - with vengeance. We will see who is right over the next 18 months.
