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Old 25th Aug 2009, 07:44
  #45 (permalink)  
Captain Smithy
 
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Looking at the METARs provided for the forecast period (thanks SIGMET nil) the TAFs do seem fairly reasonable to me, with the exception that the strong winds didn't materialise until late afternoon/early evening on the 23rd, even then not as strong as forecast. With the light winds in the morning, when the 12-12 TAF was issued the forecast wind was revised. To me that seems perfectly reasonable. A forecast was made, the wind wasn't as strong as they thought so they revised the forecast.

Sometimes the problem is how we pilots interpret the forecast. I used to complain a bit about TAFs being wrong (there was a thread a while back on Private Flying on this subject) but then I realised the problem was how I was interpreting the TAF. I was still a student then, now I understand it a bit more. Although yes there are occasions when I read a TAF, look at the METARs and think "What the f...?".

What was a problem was the unforecast early morning Fog. Fog is a difficult thing to forecast, but here is one area where perhaps human input (with a little local knowledge) would help.

Sometimes forecasts can be spot-on, other times they can be questionable. Such is the science of forecasting I suppose.

There used to be a member here, PKPF68-77, who was very good at explaining all things Wx. However I'm not sure if he's still around; unfortunately he got involved in the willy-waving contest on the Global Warming thread on Jet Blast a while back and I've not seen him around here since.

Smithy
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