Thanks Bealzebub, am very glad i asked now.
It does look very bleak. You asked some very important questions on the industry as a whole. I'll answer what i can.
How much risk can you afford?
I can afford to take to the risk, but assessing the risk itself is more difficult, I think we can safely say its in a high risk category at this stage.
How much research have you done?
Mostly on FTO's and what is involved in the study to see if i would be able to handle the amount of study etc.
Have you looked at the aircraft manufacturers websites for their year on year sales at this time. Given the long lead times in ramping up their production, where do feel any sudden growth is going to be satisfied from?
I have not looked but have heard in here about such comments on Boeing / Airbus Orders - Apparently there's a good number of them but i wouldn't let that paint a pretty picture. But good idea, I'll google out some of their websites. (Any links on that?)
Have you researched how many airlines are laying off experienced pilots, and in what numbers?
Mainly only what I've heard in pprune and on the news. I have looked at what airlines are offering jobs though, there is positions there, but i fear the queue for some them could run into the tens of thousands.
How much growth would it take to re-absorb a significant bulk of these experienced pilots?
I have heard random numbers in here from 3 years, 5 years to 10 years.
Again how to calculate these for certain is almost impossible but i would go
with the mean of 5 years.
Have you researched the effect of legislative changes to the labour market? Do you know that in many countries pilots can now potentially work up to 10 years longer than they could just a couple of years ago. How much pressure will this take off employers to naturally cycle between now and 2017?
Yes, am aware the retirement age has changed in some places. Its sure to slow things down a bit, you could say by ten years
add that to the previous and we are 15 years behind any proper chance of sponsored job.
Look at the new technology aircraft (A350, B787) and the problems that are plaguing these programmes. These are in many cases, replacement units for existing fleets that are reaching the end of their life cycles. Nevertheless they are unlikely, even without further delays, to be seeing a significant inroad into aircraft fleets until around the year 2017. Airlines ordering today would be lucky to see delivery slots before 2018-2020.
Not sure which problems your specifically mentioning here but that adds another 9 years right there.
Maybe we should put this in the super high risk category i.e not worth it at all in todays economy. Although you can be lucky, that has certainly been proven.
And as you mentioned there are options to "self sponsor" by spending tonnes more money in the hopes it will help u up the ladder and into the seat of your dreams.
Maybe the best thing would be to sign up for one of the regional airline offers through the fto like flybe and such although its been a while since i looked at them too, maybe they are flaking out.
I must admit, I'm triple thinking about the whole thing now, will have to re-research again.