Sigmet Nil - make no mistake this is day and daily in every respect - I just chose this occasion to voice my frustration - don't pick holes in my one example to shoot down the arguement.
I'm only here to learn and would appreciate to understand, what precisely you deem to be wrong in these forecasts.
My perspective is, that both forecasters wanted to say, that the basic conditions are visibility 10+ and clouds better than 1500 ft agl and it's going to rain every now and then with Visibility not below 3 km and ceiling not below 500 ft agl, but no longer than local midnight and from then on weather would be fairly quiet.
Which is more or less what happened in reality, if you discount the brief spell of morning fog the day after.
In TAF 1 the forecaster made a special point on the 20 utc rain and thought some CBs might come with that and produce strong gusts, which was maybe not too far fetched with regard to the generally lively southwesterly flow in the area. However, the pronounced gusts with the 20 utc rainshower band and the associated CBs are the only significant formal difference to TAF 2.
But after having seen the RADAR pictures I can perfectly understand why both forecasters thought, that the cloudbase might be temporarily below 1000 ft agl and visibility below 5 km. I tend to think the rain mostly came from CBs, who decayed during the overwater transit from Ireland to Scotland.
The second TAF didn't discern between the earlier showers and the 20 utc rain band and thought it would be all the same, anyway. Although that was formally correct, the 20 utc rain band indeed seems to have been the "highlight" of the day, weatherwise.
I would appreciate to learn from you (or any other pilot), why precisely you think these TAFs are of poor quality or maybe even a safety issue. (aside from the poor syntax in TAF1, where I don't know wether it stems from the original.)
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TAF EGPF 230507Z 2306/2406 09008KT 9999 -RA SCT010 BKNO15 BECMG 2306/2309 16016G26KT TEMPO 2306/2320 3000 RA BKN005 PROB 40 TEMPO 23202320 22023G35KT 4000 RA SHRA BKN006 BKN014CB BECMG 2400/2404 VRB06KT=
A short time later - two hours after getting the above !!!
TAF EGPF 231054Z 2312/2412 VRB05KT 9999 SCT010 BKN035 TEMPO 2312/2322 19015KT 4000 RA BKN007=
For convenience I've added the relevant METARs that I could find. (Source: ogimet.com)
SA 24/08/2009 11:50-> METAR EGPF 241150Z 21009KT 9999 SCT035 17/10 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 11:20-> METAR EGPF 241120Z 20009KT 9999 SCT030 17/09 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 10:50-> METAR EGPF 241050Z 21010KT 9999 SCT025 16/09 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 10:20-> METAR EGPF 241020Z 19011KT 150V220 9999 SCT028 16/09 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 09:50-> METAR EGPF 240950Z 19012KT 9999 SCT028 16/10 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 09:20-> METAR EGPF 240920Z 19010KT 9999 SCT020 15/10 Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 08:50-> METAR EGPF 240850Z 20008KT 9999 SCT016 15/11 Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 08:20-> METAR EGPF 240820Z 19006KT 160V220 9999 FEW010 SCT016 14/11
Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 07:50-> METAR EGPF 240750Z VRB02KT 9999 FEW012 SCT020 13/11 Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 07:20-> METAR EGPF 240720Z VRB03KT 9999 FEW020 12/11 Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 06:50-> METAR EGPF 240650Z 03003KT 9999 SCT020 10/10 Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 06:20-> METAR EGPF 240620Z 03003KT 9999 SCT035 09/09 Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 05:50-> METAR EGPF 240550Z VRB03KT 9999 FEW035 10/10 Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 05:20-> METAR EGPF 240520Z 05003KT 5000 R05/0550 BCFG FEW045 09/08
Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 04:50-> METAR EGPF 240450Z 00000KT 7000 R23/0600 PRFG NSC 10/09 Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 04:20-> METAR EGPF 240420Z 26002KT CAVOK 10/10 Q1004=
SA 24/08/2009 03:50-> METAR EGPF 240350Z NIL=
SA 24/08/2009 03:20-> METAR EGPF 240320Z AUTO 27003KT 9999NDV NCD 11/10 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 02:50-> METAR EGPF 240250Z AUTO 22006KT 9999NDV NCD 12/11 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 02:20-> METAR EGPF 240220Z AUTO 23006KT 9999NDV NCD 12/11 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 01:50-> METAR EGPF 240150Z 21004KT CAVOK 11/10 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 01:20-> METAR EGPF 240120Z 24005KT 9999 FEW026 13/11 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 00:50-> METAR EGPF 240050Z 22005KT 9999 SCT029 13/11 Q1003=
SA 24/08/2009 00:20-> METAR EGPF 240020Z 25004KT 9999 SCT026 14/12 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 23:50-> METAR EGPF 232350Z 26005KT 9999 SCT024 BKN030 14/13 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 23:20-> METAR EGPF 232320Z 26003KT 9999 BKN025 15/13 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 22:50-> METAR EGPF 232250Z 28006KT 9999 -SHRA SCT009 SCT014 BKN020 15/13 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 22:20-> METAR EGPF 232220Z 22012KT 9999 -SHRA SCT016 BKN028 16/15 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 21:50-> METAR EGPF 232150Z 21008KT 9999 FEW012 SCT018 BKN030 16/15 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 21:20-> METAR EGPF 232120Z 21010KT 9999 SCT010 BKN016 17/15 Q1002 RERA=
SA 23/08/2009 20:50-> METAR EGPF 232050Z 21009KT 9999 -SHRA SCT010 BKN016 17/15 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 20:20-> METAR EGPF 232020Z 20012KT 5000 RA SCT015 BKN020 17/15 Q1003 RERA=
SA 23/08/2009 19:50-> METAR EGPF 231950Z 19012KT 4000 RA FEW015 BKN020 BKN030 17/15 Q1002=
SA 23/08/2009 19:20-> METAR EGPF 231920Z 19014KT 9999 VCSH FEW015 SCT020 BKN030 18/15 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 18:50-> METAR EGPF 231850Z 20015KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 SCT030 18/15 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 18:20-> METAR EGPF 231820Z 19014KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 SCT040 18/15 Q1002=
SA 23/08/2009 17:50-> METAR EGPF 231750Z 19014KT 9000 -SHRA FEW016 SCT024 18/16 Q1002=
SA 23/08/2009 17:20-> METAR EGPF 231720Z 19014KT 9999 SCT018TCU SCT024 BKN045 19/16 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 16:50-> METAR EGPF 231650Z 20017KT 9999 FEW018 SCT024 19/16 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 16:20-> METAR EGPF 231620Z 19018KT 9999 -RA FEW018 BKN035 19/16 Q1002=
SA 23/08/2009 15:50-> METAR EGPF 231550Z 18014KT 9999 -RA SCT020 SCT026 BKN035 18/16 Q1002 RERA=
SA 23/08/2009 15:20-> METAR EGPF 231520Z 18012KT 9000 -RA SCT020 BKN026 18/16 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 14:50-> METAR EGPF 231450Z 18012KT 9999 -RA FEW018 BKN024 BKN030 19/16 Q1003=
SA 23/08/2009 14:20-> METAR EGPF 231420Z 16009KT 120V220 9999 -SHRA BKN018 BKN024 19/16 Q1004=
SA 23/08/2009 13:50-> METAR EGPF 231350Z 16005KT 130V200 9999 -RA BKN020 18/16 Q1004=
SA 23/08/2009 13:20-> METAR EGPF 231320Z 14007KT 120V190 9999 -RA FEW020 BKN030 18/16 Q1005=
SA 23/08/2009 12:50-> METAR EGPF 231250Z 16007KT 9999 SCT016 BKN022 18/16 Q1005=
SA 23/08/2009 12:20-> METAR EGPF 231220Z 16011KT 9999 -SHRA BKN016 18/16 Q1005=
SA 23/08/2009 11:50-> METAR EGPF 231150Z 17011KT 9999 VCSH BKN016 18/16 Q1005=
SA 23/08/2009 11:20-> METAR EGPF 231120Z 16009KT 9999 BKN016 18/15 Q1006 REDZ=
SA 23/08/2009 10:50-> METAR EGPF 231050Z 15005KT 120V200 9999 -RA FEW015 SCT030 BKN040 17/15 Q1006=
SA 23/08/2009 10:20-> METAR EGPF 231020Z 11006KT 9999 -RA FEW015 SCT025 BKN030 16/15 Q1006=
SA 23/08/2009 09:50-> METAR EGPF 230950Z 14005KT 080V200 6000 -RA FEW010 SCT020 BKN030 16/15 Q1007=
SA 23/08/2009 09:20-> METAR EGPF 230920Z 11006KT 060V140 9999 -RA SCT012 SCT018 BKN024 16/15 Q1007 REDZ=
SA 23/08/2009 08:50-> METAR EGPF 230850Z 06005KT 9999 -RA SCT016 BKN022 16/14 Q1007 REDZ=
SA 23/08/2009 08:20-> METAR EGPF 230820Z 09005KT 9999 -RA FEW020 BKN030 15/14 Q1008=
SA 23/08/2009 07:50-> METAR EGPF 230750Z 11004KT 080V170 9999 -RA SCT020 BKN030 15/14 Q1008=
SA 23/08/2009 07:20-> METAR EGPF 230720Z 18005KT 150V240 6000 -RA FEW015 SCT025 BKN030 15/14 Q1008 REDZ=
SA 23/08/2009 06:50-> METAR EGPF 230650Z 16004KT 110V220 6000 -RA FEW010 SCT020 BKN030 15/14 Q1009=
SA 23/08/2009 06:20-> METAR EGPF 230620Z 20004KT 150V240 9999 VCSH BKN010 15/14 Q1009=
SA 23/08/2009 05:50-> METAR EGPF 230550Z 17007KT 130V210 9000 -DZ SCT010 BKN016 BKN022 15/14 Q1009=