Of course you can't, that is the gamble you would be embarking upon.
Nobody can predict with any degree of certainty what any market will look like at any point in the future. If they could, it wouldn't be much of a gamble?
If you were investing your money in a tangible asset such as property or gold, you would still be taking a gamble, but win or lose there would still be something of some value to show for your gain or loss. The problem with this type of training, is that it is little more than a piece of paper and even that will require large sums of additional maintainence to stop it from perishing. It is not an heirloom that you can pass on, nor is it an asset that you can re-sell or use as a security.
This is simply training that is intended to put you in a position that would enable you to enter a fiercely competitive job market pool. Having entered that pool, you will find it crowded and populated by individuals with a spectrum of additional qualification and experience, much of which will make those individuals much more attractive to the highly selective, often few and always fickle customers. As with any market, customers are going to be looking for the quality, be that the freshest, juiciest, ripest, most attractive products on sale at the best possible price. As with any perishable commodity, you only have a limited time to sell yourself, before things start to spoil and you need to refresh your product.
How much risk can you afford? How much research have you done? Have you looked at the aircraft manufacturers websites for their year on year sales at this time. Given the long lead times in ramping up their production, where do feel any sudden growth is going to be satisfied from? Have you researched how many airlines are laying off experienced pilots, and in what numbers? How much growth would it take to re-absorb a significant bulk of these experienced pilots? Have you researched the effect of legislative changes to the labour market? Do you know that in many countries pilots can now potentially work up to 10 years longer than they could just a couple of years ago. How much pressure will this take off employers to naturally cycle between now and 2017? Look at the new technology aircraft (A350, B787) and the problems that are plaguing these programmes. These are in many cases, replacement units for existing fleets that are reaching the end of their life cycles. Nevertheless they are unlikely, even without further delays, to be seeing a significant inroad into aircraft fleets until around the year 2017. Airlines ordering today would be lucky to see delivery slots before 2018-2020.
Where do you see the urgent need for 250 hour CPL's in this time frame?
One answer might be in carriers looking to offer training as a revenue stream, coupled with cheap right hand seat costs. Here specifically I am thinking of MPL type training and other forms of quasi-sponsorship/loan type programmes. This might well be the road to proceed on for new aspirants in the near and medium term future. If it proves cost effective and successful for the airlines now experimenting with it, then others will surely follow. The point to bear in mind of course, is that it will massively depress the reward element of that job. Why pay somebody for a task they are willing to do for free, or even to pay you for? How long before this methodology then spreads to the other seat? The bad news is that it already is. Some companies are now starting to require even Captains to have to invest in their own type ratings and conversion training before they will offer a contract. Even for experienced pilots, the tide is coming in a lot faster than many ever expected.
Some people will tell you to ignore the gloom & doom, and I would agree that there are times when you simply have to, however before anybody spends dangerously large sums of money on speculative ventures they should take off any blinkers and look at what is happening in the real world now! It is all too easy to ignore reality with tales of what someones mate did 3 years ago or even last year. The glossy brochures will still be glossy as long as they can afford to be printed in that format. There is always a natural desire to talk up a market (or even talk down a market) from those that would see a profit in such talk. Even if the sun comes out tommorow, unemployment tumbles and everybody breathes a collective sigh or relief. Where do you think this massive turnaround in airline growth will suddenly spout from? This is a mature industry that will eventually improve. However that improvement will inevitably take years to be of significance and unlike the Harrods sale, will not require anybody to be camped on the pavement ready for the doors to open tommorrow. That isn't going to happen, and indeed cannot happen.
Having said all that, if anybody can afford to train without taking on an enormous financial risk, or they simply don't care, or they want to take a punt, then go for it. I believe the training industry is also in an economic predicament and needs to sell to survive. It also has employees whose own livelyhood depends on the employers consequential success. I wouldn't want to see these businesses suffering any more than I would want to see my own suffering. They have a right to succeed, and they can only do that if they can sell. Given the very few under 18's who have the ability to aquire credit, or possess these large sums of capital, required to buy the product, their principal customers will be adults. It is up to these adults to satisfy themselves as to the viability and risk of the product they are buying. To this end the old adage still applies of caveat emptor.
Bet you are glad you asked!