PJ2;
If I may enquire, for the mathematically-challenged among us, how the radius of the turn was calculated?
Didn't even try and calculate the radius of the turn - these guys were on a roller coaster with combination of ascending / descending air and an inherited tail wind. As I said, if the speed brakes (meaning to trade speed for a higher bank angle and less Gs) had been used they would have pulled a tighter turn, but I have no idea how awkward hand flying might be in alternate/direct law - and in these conditions.
A more direct path to the calculated impact point is likely as it provides for a steeper descent and ultimately a slower IAS when they attempt to level off. Someone might like to comment on how effective the rudder would be in direct law at near stall speed pulling TOGA with only one engine. Remember, the BEA stated the vertical stabilizer damage showed the tail was rotating to port on impact and I couldn't help but wonder if only No.1 was operational.
As mentioned in the earlier post, the calculated impact point could well be 10NM further east which would fit in well with the bank angle you have indicated and what appears to have been a rapid descent. Subject to the OSCAR/NOAA surface current data being reasonably accurate, I wouldn't be too supprised to find the "Pourquoi pas?" somewhere close by.
BTW, your circle is tangental to 0209, but moving it on 30 secs would allow the circumference to pass through the LKP at 0210. Thanks for the bank angle calcs and link.
mm43