G’day Fooey,
While I don’t think we will see a Great Depression, what I was trying to highlight is that the stock market and the real economies of the world will yoyo for at least 10 years. The fact that the US government has strongarmed the FASB into relaxing standards in the middle of the greatest downturn since the Great Depression will only make in my opinion the yo-yoing worse.
Regarding China, yes it is on the verge, but it is still an export driven economy. Roughly 2/3rds of what it produces is exported to the US and Europe. It will be at least two generations before the Chinese economy will have enough internal demand to be self sustaining. Until then it will be subject to the ups and downs of their most important trading partners. Regarding the size of the Chinese economy, it is still only about 1/10th the size of the US. At its current growth rate it will be about fifty years before it overtakes the US.