That's the sort of timescale I think would be prudent.
History suggests many large airline bankruptcies occur months and years after the technical recession ended.
The big shake outs in Europe probably won't be complete for another two winters yet. How many redundant pilots there will be is anyones guess. It could be a lot and there doesn't seem to be a marked slow down in the number of students attending the large flying schools so the supply side is looking very healthy. The demand side..
WWW