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Old 3rd Aug 2009, 15:09
  #6 (permalink)  
gianmarko
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: bern, switzerland
Age: 61
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"so, have we lost the plot with complexity and are pilots given enough info in a comprehensible prioritisable manner?"

overall, modern aeroplanes are amazingly safe and foolproof, even with all those modern devilries :-)
even though failure modes are getting horrendously complex, overall we see less and less accidents.

but the bottom line is that there are two types of accident/crashes/failures: the normal ones and the freak ones

normal ones is when some component fails, or the pilot has a brain cramp and screws up. those are easy to understand and something can usually be done in the form of component mods, different training or SOP's etc in order to improve safety

the freak ones is when bad luck or an extremely improbable and unique sequence of events conjure to bring an a/c down. usually there is very little that can be done to address these, and in my opinion they should be just accepted for what they are, freak accidents, an inevitable side of any activity.

i tend to think that the AF447 was one of these, but i also think that modern aircrafts are so damn good that we see more and more freak accidents because the "normal" ones tend to disappear.

unfortunately, the public opinion and safety agencies wont just accept the principle of freak accidents and instead will do (or try to) something with usually no real improvement in safety but only an increase in costs, complexities, bureaucracy etc.
something must be done, right? after all, even just one saved life is worth it...

it might sound a stupid idea but this is exactly what i see in my flying community. mysterious, freaky accidents all different from each other, no patterns at all, so not much that can be done to improve safety, except to quit flying, that is....

this is actually what has happened in many countries in general aviation, where the safety related regulatory load is so large that people cant afford to fly any more, or just wont find it funny any more because of cost and bureaucracy. statistically this has horrid effects on safety (accidents per flight hour skyrocket) but absolute number of casualties decrease.... people then sell the airplanes and buy powerful cars and motorbikes and then proceed to kill themselves in a way which wont raise any concern in the media and public opinion...

rant over...
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