FR have certainly spoken to BAA recently about a base at GLA: see para 25 of
this ("Ryanair had talked to BAA at Glasgow about introducing a base there, but had been told that BAA’s head office would not allow Glasgow to engage in discount arrangements.") and page 51 of
this ("essentially BAA offered us [FR] the same deal at Glasgow International that we have negotiated in Edinburgh, which we would not regard as successful at all"). The latter is an interesting comment about their deal at EDI, which could lend credence to the view (advanced on another thread) that their deal there includes a 'non-cannibalisation' clause, with no (or little) discounts on routes already served from EDI. (That could explain why routes like Oslo and Paris aren't served by FR from EDI, both of which you'd have thought would provide strong inbound loads to EDI.)
If you think it all through though, it could be argued that FR's current position in the west of Scotland is the strongest it can ever be. While based at PIK they always have the threat of moving to GLA, which gives FR the upper hand in any negotiations with PIK. If, however, FR moved to GLA then their position is weakened as they go from being the largest customer at PIK to one of many customers at GLA. GLA's owners would have to take account of all their other customers when considering what deal to offer FR and so - as the quote above about EDI indicates - the deal is unlikely to be particularly attractive and certainly not as attractive as their current deal at PIK (if it were, GSM and EZY I'm sure would soon demand the same terms). Any deal could also have non-cannibalisation clauses in it, restricting the routes that would qualify for the largest discounts. Hence FR's strongest negotiating position is the status quo: stay at PIK but always have the threat of moving to GLA to keep PIK's prices keen - competition in a nutshell.
That said, the prospect of higher yields at GLA may be sufficient to make the switch attractive. Figure 27 of
this provides some evidence to suggest that yields at GLA may be higher than PIK (all other things being equal), since it shows that a £15 increase in ticket price would have dissuaded from flying around 30% of those surveyed at PIK, whereas the same increase would have dissuaded only just under 15% at GLA (and EDI for that matter). The experience of BMI Baby's GLA/PIK - CWL route could be interpreted as bearing this out.
Today's route announcements could indicate a long-term refocusing of FR's PIK operations to 'sunshine' destinations (and so take on EZY and GSM at GLA), with EDI focussing on the Euro cities (although a non-canibalistion clause in the contract there would restrict the scale to which that could be done). Looks like ALC is four-weekly, LPA twice-weekly and ACE and PMI each weekly (don't know about IBZ). I'm sure the booking system earlier today showed these increasing in frequency in summer 2010, but they're unbookable as I type so can't be certain. FAO, AGP and TFS all become more frequent in summer 2010: 4, 6 and 5 weekly, although a lot can obviously change between now and then . A report on the BBC website (
here) states that the new destinations are being served at the expense of some of the existing destinations identified as unbookable earlier in this thread, so it looks like the FR presence at PIK isn't being cut as much as had been earlier feared.
Finally, there's a few interesting points in Infratil's latest annual report (
here):
"The main area of cost reduction has been at Glasgow Prestwick where staff numbers have been reduced by approximately 25%. In addition, business development expenditure has been reduced because it is apparent that in the short term business is just not there to be developed. Making these changes has been disheartening, but necessary."
"Infratil’s investment in these airports has been motivated by assumptions about trends. More people and freight are being moved by air and as hub airports become congested there will be a step change in the demand for under-utilised edge-of-town airports. While this forecast remains valid, its timing is uncertain and this uncertainty is being factored into Infratil’s approach to these investments."
"Glasgow Prestwick and Kent both present similar dilemmas. UK airport ownership is undergoing a major change at present as
BAA has been obliged by regulatory agencies to sell Gatwick Airport and one of its two Scottish airports. In addition an extensive process is underway to identify the next runway for London with Kent being a candidate. These factors and the underlying propensity of the aviation industry to bounce back quickly from recessions auger for the long-term value of Infratil’s UK airports. Set against this is the uncertainty of the time frames."
This report suggests that LBC's likely to be sold in October and stakes sold in MSE or PIK (or both) if a buyer can be found. Perhaps FR should buy a stake in PIK, if they're confident in their theory that airports can offer them low charges and yet still be profitable on the basis of car park charges etc...