Amelia Earhart Project in PNG
Torres et al:
There were several radio calls heard from Earhart and only one of them can be said to have indicated an "actual" position. As we know AE & FN left Lae at 0000GMT 2nd July. Note, I work in Statute miles as did Earhart.
I do not believe the Electra went direct, LAE-HOW because of a radio call heard by Lae at 0518GMT which gave the Lat/Long of 7 d 3' S, 157d 0 E.
If you read "The Chater Report" on the www. made by Eric Chater of Guinea Airways, this call is recorded as 150.7 E, which if correct it means the Electra has only covered 249 Miles in the 5.3 hours. So it cannot be correct and the more sensible Longitude is 157 E. You say it to yourself over and over again and you can then understand how Harry Balfour recorded it at 150.7.
150-7, 150-7, 150.7...157. That is 686 Miles after 5.3 hours (05:18)which is a more reasonable Groundspeed but still not accurate because we do not know that she was over Mount Maetambe on Choiseul Island at the particular time. "18 Minutes" past the hour was one of her stated broadcast times. The time/distance delivers 129 mph G/S average for the sector.
Why go by way of Choiseul Island ? There was a reported tropical storm south of the Eastern end of New Britain.
From Choiseul they would then head north-east for Nukumanu Island, which they had to see before dark for a positive fix. The sector is 224 miles. Nukumanu is on the direct line LAE-HOW and the dogleg only adds 31 miles.
Harry Balfour in Lae heard her in the area of Nukumanu Island which is 873 Miles from Lae in a direct line calling at 0718 but the position given is about 20 miles West of the Island. They have now covered 910 miles.
I have worked out that Noonan was assuming the wind at 12mph Easterly but Earhart reported a wind of 23 mph buit did not give a direction. As we know, in July , the trade winds are Easterly. That higher abeam wind would have blown them slightly west of the atoll.
She then climbs to Cruise level and was heard agian at 0800GMT by Lae "on course for Howland". Mary Lovell's book says at 12,000 feet, others say 10,000. There was a reason for going to 12,000 so I accept that.
At 1030GMT she calls, "Ship in sight ahead", recorded by Nauru Radio.
There was a US Coastguard vessle at the half way point named the USCG Ontario. It could not communicate with AE or she with it for it only had LF radio. It was 1278 miles from Lae.
The timing is right for the ship to be the Ontario and she has covered 1309 miles in 10.5 hours which delivers a G/S of 124mph average LAE-ONT sector. By this time she should have been doing 138 mph, so she is down on G/S. Note that the average G/S has dropped off since leaving Choiseul whereas it should have increased due to fuel burn off. This would indicate a wind increasing in strength.
The USCG Ontario recorded a surface wind of 20 Knots from 083 degrees at the time she would have been going over. That's a direct headwind. So up at 10K or 12K wherever she was it would have been more. From extensive playing around with times, distances, etc, in a MS Excel programme I made which shifts points and distance and takes into account winds, I do believe that the upper wind was at 35 mph Easterly. I cannot get her to the Ontario at that time of 1030GMT without that value wind.
To cut a long story short I believe they were 250-300 miles from Howland Island when they turned back.
Fuel at turnback I have calculated to be about 300 USG.
The evidence of how she "could have got back to New Britain" rests on pages 36 and 37 of her own book "Last Flight" wherein it says:
"Daylight comes at last. The stars fade. We are throttled down to 120 indicated airspeed so not to arrive in darkness. We are burning less than 20 gals. gas at 10000 ft. We have tuned on Makapu. Keep it 10 degrees to starboard bow is the order".
This excerpt is from her first attempt at a World Flight when she flew from Oakland to Wheeler Field on Hawaii. They were making too much G/S and would have arrived in the dark, so she slowed it down.
There are those who say this is 20 USG "per engine" but the Cruise power setting for 10,000 feet at the same stage of a trip is 38 USGPH so 40USGPH would be a Cruise + setting, ie; it would not slow the ship down. Why these people cannot accept Earhart's own words is beyond me.
So if she had 240USG left she can endure for 12 hours and on the way back she has the TAS + the Tailwind. She can get back to ENB.
Torres, the Serial No. is not of the engine. The serial number is the airframe.... Earhart's Electra was the 55th Model 10 built, hence it had the Construction Number 1055 (C/N1055). Her engines were Serial No's 6149 and 6150.
Regards,
Dave Billings
Last edited by David Billings; 25th Feb 2018 at 11:19.