At the beginning of the takeoff roll (approximately 18:17:40) the control column and the control wheel were positioned at the neutral (0 degrees) position. At 18:18:01, the rudder pedal began a movement to the right, gradually increasing to approximately 4˝ degrees (18:18:04˝), where it was held essentially constant for approximately 2 seconds (18:18:06˝) when it was moved further to the right to approximately 11 degrees (18:18:07˝), the maximum rudder pedal deflection achieved. Over the next 11 seconds, the rudder pedals are moved to an essentially neutral (0 degrees) position and returned to slightly less than 10 degrees right. There wasn’t any control column movement (up or down) until 18:18:08 (airspeed slightly above 70 kts) when it appears to have been moved aft (nose up) approximately 1 degree, at the same time the left aileron was moved UP and the right aileron DOWN (a left turn position) and held in that position until 18:18:14 (for 6 seconds) – corresponding to approximately 105 kts), at which time the control column is again placed in the neutral (0 degrees deflection) position and the aileron controls are reversed (right turn position). The control column doesn’t appear to have been moved to the forward (nose down) position until 18:18:18 (at approximately 120 kts – the highest airspeed attained), which apparently coincides with the time the airplane departed the runway.
Am I the only one who would have expected to see the control column moved to the full forward position at the beginning of the takeoff roll, and held at least until aerodynamic control was sufficient to maintain solid nosegear contact with the ground? Without the nosegear having positive contact, and with a crosswind of the amount cited, the aircraft would have most assuredly been more susceptible to the effects of a crosswind. Additionally, with such a strong crosswind blowing across a rather large, snow-covered field directly adjacent to the runway, it would be more than likely that some snow (or at least ice crystals) was blown onto the runway surface. Did that contribute anything? We may never know. Unfortunately, the FDR does not provide a readout of tiller position. Experience is that use of the tiller early on in crosswind conditions exacerbates any crosswind effect on directional control down the runway for any airplane – simply because of the magnitude of nosegear tire movement with tiller application, preventing solid contact with the surface.
I'm just readin' what I'm readin'