From JD-EE
Indeed we don't have a smoking gun. I just wish some of those bent and twisted bows and arrows strewn around here could be definitively debunked and tossed aside.
I watch everything going by in here, a lot of it repetitious, but some of it very insightful. I have learned a lot of the 'why's' of the interactions between hardware that, while completely explained in school, training and sims, falls short of the detailed failure analysis in here. After verifiying some of what I've seen in here, I am much better at these hardware and software interactions.
The bent arrows, while plentiful, can usually be examined by source and motive, and not too much expended effort to dismiss.
I have spent a great deal of time trying to put myself there (as I was last summer at this time) and trying figure out how this magnificent airplane and crew/pax got so far afield. I think back to times approaching the ITCZ when distractions would arise, be dealt with and prepare for the hour or two of real, 100% work to get thru the band of weather. My instructions were that meal service was to end prior (giving the cabin crew 4-ish hours from T/O) to crossing the wx, and that we were not to be disturbed until we signalled that we were clear. I was always up front when I was junior, and learned that lesson when I got senior.. to be there as well. There would be plenty of time on the other side to rest, eat and deal with Dakar. The same for the reverse (southbound) leg.
Some of the F/O's I flew with took this area as seriously as I did, and some did not. I know I'll read/hear about the ones that did not someday.
We are all truly hoping for a miracle of some kind, an answer with a smoking gun. If I was asked what could be my 'perfect solution/resolution'...
The CVR.
I'd want to know what was going on in that cockpit prior to anything going wrong, and what it was that they encountered. We all know we will never hear the actual sounds and voices, but only a transcript. I firmly believe the answer is there.
P.S. I wanted to add that this (or anything I've posted prior) is not necessarily an endictment of the flight crew per se. I think they encountered something beyond what they were expecting, and discovered, too late, how best to deal with it. That IS a wide open statement that covers what we know so far.