If you got in to QF right now, it would be at least 15 years, if not more, before you get a look at a command position (if there are any QF guys that think/know I am wrong please correct me).
Pretty close to the money at the moment. Took me 13 1/2 for a Sydney base. Some guys went to AO in Cairns after 9-11 years but there is no way I could have done that to OIC home command. Some recent guys who took Perth based 737 commands also did it in 9-11 years I think. MEL 767 command was a little more junior than mine but not by much.
As to how long it will take those that join now, it depends on whether we have some sort of GOAL in the future. If we don't then I fear the rest of your assessment may be spot on.