Nurse,
I am not a Sea King expert and you do make some valid points (especially regarding the HC3 where I wholeheartedly agree, and the only solace is that when we go through the CH47 MLU that all of the costs and experience would have been gained from this debacle of a procurement). I assume (only through the open press) that the Puma LEP is a given and a non reversible.
This decision alone changes the dynamic, as I too would agree that the Puma force should be binned, but I do see the requirement for an aircraft that has a footprint/disc less than a CH47/Merlin, and as the Puma system is in place I can see why DEC ALM/JHC decided to continue with this plan.
Therefore we are left with the Fisheads to sort out as they (without LEP) are really hurting and need something that makes them more capable (such a waste of a superb bunch of aircrew and groundcrews, that actually deliver (on the whole
) not a lot through no fault of their own. They also potentially provide a source of aircrew and engineers that can be potentially pushed through the system the quickest, especially when Merlin arrives in theatre and instantly doubles (probably triples?) what a Sea King can lift.
As to whether CHF re-role as Merlin or CH47, that is very much a decision for DEC ALM/JHC (and boy have they had long enough (10-15 years!) to think about this!). Do they go down your plan of Merlin in amphibious role, or down a CH47 route, or do they have one squadron of each at Yeovilton, or does CHF take a bow and they absorb into Benson/Odiham as an amphib squadron (one Fishead squadron per aircraft type and the CHF staff officers absorbed into the relevant SHF HQ). Regardless, in answer to your question the reduction in airframes/squadron numbers cannot be allowed to happen (as per Joint Force Harrier) otherwise we have facilitated a low cost smoke and mirrors that only appeases H M Treasury and the Prime Minister's spin doctors. So 28 would sit along side 845 and 18/27 would sit alongside 846 (for exampe), with the Commando training squadron being the only sacrifice with an enlarged Merlin/CH47 OCU made up of the QHI/QHCIs (or whatever the RN call them) from 848.
I hasten to add that I am all for keeping CHF, and in the ideal world letting them have a force mix of CH47 and Merlin as that would truly make them an organic amphibious force, that not only prevents me from going to sea, but also falls into the operations plot like 3 Cdo Bde, so at some stage Odiham does (hopefully) get a break.
The only reason why I could possibly see CHF and Fishead squadrons having to re-locate to Benson or Odiham would be to appease the logisticians/fleet managers as there appears to be a a belief that operational capability is not sacrificed by fleet nodes (as seen by all of the AH to Wattisham, CH47 at Odiham and green Merlin at Benson). I do disagree, and as the AH found when moving from Dishforth and losing their Lynx/training areas there is every chance that trying to appease the logisticians by simply putting all aircraft types on one station would actually reduce operational capability.
In answer to the CH47 - the answer is yes, of course F - and it really is amazing that countries like Canada and Australia have been on the ball as to the requirement and funding, and yet here we are with our pants down. Hopefully our HC4 MLU will get us in the ball park of the F. But, if there really are no F models out there any CH47 will surely be better than the 'mighty' Sea King, and as long as downstream it is standardised during the HC4 MLU, then there is an interim fleets within fleets. Bottom line, ask a Sea King driver if he would prefer an older non-standard CH47 or his current aircraft, and once the loyalty and nostalgia and history was put to one side, for doing the job he/she would say CH47 I am sure.
But as I have indicated, where there is a (political) will there is a (DEC ALM/IPT) way and I believe that given the 'special relationship', operational requirement and Mr Boeing just loving to have his product on operations for marketing purposes, that there is every possibility that all is not lost if UK MoD really did want to acquire more CH47F in a very short time frame. It may cost extra or we may owe another nation a 'favour' but I believe that it is genuinely possible and to me is the true test of whether H M Govt/MoD are taking this seriously or just hoping that it will be lost in the long grass when the media finds something else that grabs a headline.
If the Commando Sea King fleet is rapidly re-roled to either/or both Merlin/CH47 on arrival of the current established Merlins in theatre, then a combination of the SAR and SKASaCs will be able to form a training pipeline. With the Commando Sea Kings gone there are only a few Sea Kings that require a training pipeline. Worst case use the ex green painted ex ASW airframes (Mk6?) and take a few of the 848 squadron QHIs for the basic conversion down at Culdrose, colocated with either the SAR or SKASaCs squadron. That should keep the Fishead basic Sea King training pipeline going, with a differences and CR course when on type.