Coagie, can you reconcile your proposed scenario with the locations of the bodies and wreckage after 7 or more days of drift at sea? Somehow the plane apparently made some serious travel in the reverse direction of its flight plan from its last reported position. The distance may have been big enough that a significant portion of that travel took place after the last ACARS message. Some REALLY accurate back tracking on the drift of objects is needed to get some kind of estimate of where the plane went down. Appearances are that it did not go down at its 02:10:34 position or further along its flight plan.
So losing the tail in a scenario that requires it be blown off forward BUT with damage to its rudder's lower edges rather than tipping off.
There is a nice way to get a "feel" for what the BEA folks saw at the base of the VS if you're modestly handy with tools. Take a piece of paper and a small board, say 2.5cm by 2.5cm by 30cm. Cut a slot most of the way through the board lengthwise in the middle of one side. Slide the piece of paper into the slot. Get some short dowel rod. Cut off three pieces about 3 to 4 cm long. Find a drill a little larger than the diameter of the rod. Drill three holes through the board and paper in the "front" 2/3 of the paper and slot. Don't have the hole drilled in the paper actually break the edge of the paper. Slip in the pieces of dowel rod. Now grab the the paper with both hands in a "prayer" position and pull up and "forward". Notice the tears in the paper at the hole positions is not symmetrical. This allows you to figure out which way it was broken loose. It is on this basis the BEA made its pronouncement.
You can see this to a lesser degree pulling paper out unevenly from a three ring binder.
I believe they have a very good notion of that direction the VS was trying to move as it was pried loose. And I think I have a half a good guess on how this happened. It does not include breaking off in flight.
The theories are fun. But it's more interesting when you can fit the theory to the very limited set of facts present.
JD-EE