Airbus A320 / Boeing 737 successors, new engine technology seems crucial

[keesje]

The Boeing 737 has been around for 40 years and has seen major upgrades in the mid eighties and late nineties. The A320 also has passed 20 yrs. Both Airbus and Boeing indicate they don’t see the need for new narrow body aircraft being developed before 2020 earliest.

Question is what the airlines will think if oil goes through the roof again. Who will buy Boeing 737/A320's from 2017 for use until 2042? Is it still a good investment? Public & government pressure to reduce levels of green house gas emissions are also growing.

Airlines like AF/KL, American, Easyjet and Southwest publicly said they want something better ASAP, not from 2020 . On top of that competition is pushing from below. New variants of the new 5 abreast Cseries, Superjets, ARJ's and probably new Embraers will push the shorter 737 and A320 variants out of the <150 seats segment.

the major discussion in the industry seems to be on engine technology. Both CFM and Pratt are developing new technology higher bypass engines, the LEAPX and the Geared Turbo Fan (GTF). Both these engines could fit under the wings of A320 and 737 (though with considerable modifications). Those engines promise fuel consumption reduction of around 15%.

However a further 10% improvement could be achieved by introducing counter rotating open rotors (CROR) as shown on GE stand at the Paris airshow (CFM LEAPX prototype in front).



The CROR technology was tested in the late eighties by GE and PW. However complications (noise, hot gear boxes, vibrations) came up, fuel prices went down and both projects were shelved .

Until last year. Fuel prices got sky high. Projects were resurrected, road maps made for implementing new technology. Even after fuel prices went down and the economy collapsed R&D projects move on at GE/Safran and Rolls Royce. R&D seems to be focussing on topics like blade containment, noise reduction and aircraft configurations.

This recent artist impression can be found at http://www.nlr.nl/, an old R&D instute that does CROR research


Source : http://www.nlr.nl/smartsite.dws?id=12618


It seems both Rolls Royce and GE/Safran (CFM) are betting on two horses for now. Questions are the importance of an additional 10% fuel reduction, can rotor noise be reduced, how to handle gooses and what will the oil prices do for the next 30 yrs..

In the end it's probably the market / airlines that will determine the ambitions of the aircraft manufacturers..