Will Fraser
In other words, isn't the straight course line speculation? If not, and it is accurate, it means the crew started diverting at the previous course report.
When I originally took a closer look at the BEA plot, I became aware when I blew the graphic up that the line drawn from the 0200z SATCOM position was not a continuation of the 028°T track to TASIL. As we all know now, the 02:10:34 position is actually 2.94NM left of track. We have no way of determining when this deviation took place, though one would suspect that it is related to events that commenced about a minute earlier - whether by design or as a result of is of course speculation.
I've prepared a graphic which shows the ETO times SALPU, ORARO and TASIL calculated from the 0150z ~ 0200z GS of 464KT. On passing SALPU the SBFN-SSR would have received the last squawk from AF447 - at about 254NM from the radar. The 0214z Ultimo Reporté and the now discredited 0214z ACARS position are also shown.
Somewhere in the Preliminary Report I remember seeing mention that the "Fortes Turbulence" report at 0200z didn't happen - seems it must have been media inspired.
A further update to the graphic is planned shortly which will show the circulation and likely wind shear encountered between a convective cell to the left of the track and the major cell the a/c apparently penetrated around 0209z with its center slightly to the right of track.
mm43
