3m- thank you - the first 'theory' as to how they got there. Plausible indeed, but it does NOT fit with either a 'visual' approach nor a non-precision once they supposedly 'headed off' downwind. This is what I am trying to say - the 'difficulties' of a visual or NPA ar accepted, but in your theory they had 'abandoned' any sort of 'pattern' and would have been wandering aimlessly, would they not?
Anyway, blackboxes etc will tell.