It's not important how they crashed but why.
http://boeing.com/commercial/aeromag...7_article3.pdf
These additional conditions are also typically
found during
engine ice crystal power-loss events.
■ No pilot reports of weather radar returns at
the event location.
■ Temperature significantly warmer than
standard atmosphere.
■ Light-to-moderate turbulence.
■ Areas of heavy rain below the freezing level.
■ The appearance of precipitation on heated
windshield, often reported as rain, due to
tiny ice crystals melting.
■
Airplane total air temperature (TAT) anomalyreading
zero, or in error, due to ice crystal
buildup at the sensing element
■ Lack of observations of significant airframe icing.
Convective clouds can contain deep updraft
cores that can lift high concentrations of water
thousands of feet into the atmosphere, during
which water vapor is continually condensed
and frozen as the temperature drops. In doing
so, these updraft cores may produce localized
regions of high ice water content which spread
downwind. Researchers believe these clouds
can contain up to 8 grams per cubic meter
of ice water content; by contrast, the design
standard for supercooled liquid water for
engines is 2 grams per cubic meter.
Another possibility that some have mooted on the internet is that the aircraft was being blown around a lot in severe to extreme turbulence, but I don’t see how thereby one would get discrepant readings: rather, all probes would vary wildly, but coordinated, as individual gusts hit all three at more or less the same time. So I really don’t see that as a plausible reason for the P-S system issues.
Ladkin
Severe icing alone overwhelming the sensor systems, though, does not by itself lead to an accident. The AC could be controlled with pitch and power, and the Aircraft Operating Manual explains exactly what pitch and what power setting in some detail, if one has an “ADR disagree” warning.
Ladkin
“Of several acceptable explanations for a phenomenon, the simplest is preferable, provided that it takes all circumstances into account.”
Occams Razor Theory
Multi-sensor blockage combined with dual flameout?Doesnt this fit like a glove with the least assumptions(ie.just one assumption:high-alt ice crystal icing
alone ) and no contrivance(experienced crew flew into cb etc).Its been posited before I know.Is it a match for the ACARS messages,esp the last advisory re cabin alt?ie CPC affected by flameout/stall/surge prior ACARS disabled due total main AC outage?
Im just thinking that all this talk of control laws,jet upset,wx radar gain/tilt/brightness,rudder etc may be too convoluted and unnecessary.
A 22h22 et45s,les "ENGINE ANTI-ICE" sont places sur "ON"
Air Caraibe report
This was the first pilot action in response to the weather phenomenon they experienced that night and occurred only 9 seconds after the TAT registered -5C and 14s before erroneous airspeed.