Surplus1:
Sorry if I wasn't clear on this case.
My view right now is that I lean somewhat against spin hypotheses and somewhat towards the idea that the VS separated during impact (there are a number of reasons it might not have impacted the fuselage in this case). I reserve the right to change my mind as more information comes in. In general I assume that BEA has somewhat more info than we have from just the photos. I assume the visual inspections in the reports are better than the photos we have been seeing. It seems that in the case of the VS, they had to modify the examination based on photos, so this area is more weak than I would like.
One issue here also is that the argument that the plane hit in a flat spin is, in my estimation, based in some cases on the BEA report too. So I figure if we can clear up points about what is consistent with the report, we can move on to further questions, such as whether the report is accurate.
Some elements of the BEA report are very important in this regard and some of these are important and well put together. For example the discussion of uniform compression damage across various sections of the plane struck me as quite odd. Other elements are far less certain at this point.
If we give the report credence, as to the direction of failure on the VS, then I think we would also have to assert that it separated on impact, because it would seem highly unlikely that the VS failed forward unless this was the result of inertial forces (again inertial forces would have been down + forward in a low altitude stall, and down + sideways in a flat spin).
Certainly some theories can be solidly dismissed at this time. For example, the idea that the plane was in a flat spin at 0210Z as this would not be consistent with impact even 4 minutes later.
Other theories, like entering a flat spin at 0214Z are harder to dismiss. At this point, they seem inconsistent with the BEA report (while a stall at low altitude with significant forward momentum is not). But as you say, the BEA report could be wrong about key things like the tail.