Hi again.
Some reflections from a sat-ops (not a pilot).
Some people here think that the 30 second blackout in the ACARS-txm:s is related to a violent turning on the a/c-body.
There could be a much simpler explanation, ACARS works in microwave band and as the a/c passes some very dense cb:s, these ones has so much high damping factors that the link budget to the satellite is disrubted. I have work for years with disrubted satellite signals when a huge cb occurs, the damping factor has varied from 10-25dB depending on the clouds formation.
I have taken the Tim Vasquez erlier calculations and added the timeframe of the ACARS. As there was a 31 second lost carrier it should be possible to calculate the exakt size of the cb:s worst area, I got approx 6km with around 780km/h, -but I may have got the wrong speed of the a/c here.
I have noticed that the a/c should have kept a straigth course until it hit the real bad CB center to get a 31 second loss of ACARS-txm:, after that the a/C came out of the "black-spot" and the txm:s resumed. If the a/c after a minute started to make a hard right (east) move, it would make further txm:s hard as it then was on the border to a heavy cb with a lot of damping on the microwave L-band.
Enlosed is Tims erlier work that I used to plot the real-time acars pos.
The clouds may have a litte differnt shape as the sat-images were taken some minutes erlier. If you the compare the debree-map, it looks like it spread like rings on the water with a little drift.
Enclosing BEA:s ACARS LOG again to compare with the images below:
2:10:10 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 221002006AUTO FLT AP OFF
2:10:16 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 226201006AUTO FLT REAC W/S DET FAULT
2:10:23 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 279100506F/CTL ALTN LAW
2:10:29 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 228300206FLAG ON CAPT PFD SPD LIMIT
2:10:34 #0210/+2.98-30.59
2:10:41 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 228301206FLAG ON F/O PFD SPD LIMIT
2:10:47 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 223002506AUTO FLT A/THR OFF
2:10:54 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 344300506NAV TCAS FAULT
2:11:00 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 228300106FLAG ON CAPT PFD FD
2:11:15 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 228301106FLAG ON F/O PFD FD
2:11:21 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 272302006F/CTL RUD TRV LIM FAULT
2:11:27 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 279045506MAINTENANCE STATUS EFCS 2
2:11:42 - .1/WRN/WN0906010210 279045006MAINTENANCE STATUS EFCS 1
2:11:49 - .1/FLR/FR0906010210 34111506EFCS2 1,EFCS1,AFS,,,,,PROBE-PITOT 1X2 / 2X3 / 1X3 (9DA),HARD
2:11:55 - .1/FLR/FR0906010210 27933406EFCS1 X2,EFCS2X,,,,,,FCPC2 (2CE2)
/WRG:ADIRU1 BUS ADR1-2 TO FCPC2,HARD
2:12:10 - .1/WRN/WN0906010211 341200106FLAG ON CAPT PFD FPV
2:12:16 - .1/WRN/WN0906010211 341201106FLAG ON F/O PFD FPV
2:12:51 - .1/WRN/WN0906010212 341040006NAV ADR DISAGREE
2:13 - .1/FLR/FR0906010211 34220006ISIS 1,,,,,,,ISIS(22FN-10FC) SPEED OR
MACH FUNCTION,HARD
2:13:14 - .1/FLR/FR0906010211 34123406IR2 1,EFCS1X,IR1,IR3,,,,ADIRU2
(1FP2),HARD
2:13:45 - .1/WRN/WN0906010213 279002506F/CTL PRIM 1 FAULT
2:13:51 - .1/WRN/WN0906010213 279004006F/CTL SEC 1 FAULT
:14:14 - .1/WRN/WN0906010214 341036006MAINTENANCE STATUS ADR 2
2:14:20 - .1/FLR/FR0906010213 22833406AFS
1,,,,,,,FMGEC1(1CA1),INTERMITTENT
2:14:26 - .1/WRN/WN0906010214 213100206ADVISORY CABIN VERTICAL SPEED
