A2QFI
Sadly we already have bullet 1 (Defence Strategic Guidance) and bullet 2 (Defence Programme Directory (IIRC!)). What we don't have is anyone who is willing to stand up and state the latter part of bullet 3! We are, at times, our own worst enemy with our can do attitude. The other problem we have is that the military staff are heavily involved in "socialising" DSG and tend to protect single service issues at all costs! You are right when you suggest there is no 'independant' body who could produce such guidance.
I also fear this will be little more than a sticking plaster approach - with approx 12 months to when the election must happen little will be done that will affect UK plc jobs so there will be no huge changes to Typhoon / Carriers (and therefore JCA) etc. Furthermore, you get to the point when you can't make any financial decisions (in either direction) in public service so as not to sway (bribe) opinion in marginal seats (I'm sure someone more intelligent will remind me of the proper words for this!).
Their only way forward , IMHO, is to reduce commitments in terms of size, concurrency and projected length of operation. Not the place to discuss in depth here but perhaps the current op plus some home commitments may be it for the foreseeable future. Would mean operating very much 'hand to mouth' with no contingent capability whilst AFG is still ongoing. From an RAF perspective that would make the future very bleak for JFH and GR4 (despite being on ops). In terms of equipment purchases - if it isn't needed right know it goes onto the back burner. You could even squeeze harmony even further to reduce headcount (particularly if you were to reduce harmony from
x days away in period
y to
x days away in half of
y [which for some of you would be little more than a reality measure]!). And there's no money for redundancies so the only choice there is to make life so unpleasant people leave ....
Would this be sensible? Of course it wouldn't but there is no other choice. When you think the annual defence budget is spent before it is received it will need to be something quite radical to fix it. We have been backed into the corner through years of not balancing the books and putting off what needed to be paid for today until tomorrow. Savings measures such as cutting flying pay / removing CEA / disbanding the Reds and BBMF / making London based staff live in a tented city in the grounds of Uxbridge etc won't even cover a few months (defence) inflation on the equipment programme.
As for the other state departments - both health and education are 'bailed' out by those who opt out of the public systems available and go private. Any changes to those two areas in particular would need to be similarly radical and swift in coming. And that just ain't going to happen, regardless of the colour of the party.
Now a 10-15pence rise, across the board, on Income Tax. Now that might offer up some new money.
