takata, sorry if I'm grinning ruefully here, sir. I don't know. Essentially I am asking regardless of the pilot's decision how far away from his position report at 02:10:34 could he have gotten in the time between 0210 and 0215.
It has been pointed out he could be further away on what, if I understand the power situation correctly, would have been an unpowered glide. That might extend the search for the second level of probability.
When we can draw those circles we learn something. If we can map drift backwards into one of those circles that means something important. If we can't, well, I notice the positions and the drift rates diagram simply do not seem to fit at all well. That suggests a problem with the data or our interpretation of it. Scrap the hypothesis and work on another. Your work is good thinking. It just arrived at a bad conclusion, likely because of presumptions about the currents that were not true. It's not your fault or anything. It's our groping for understanding with inadequate data.
JD-EE
edit - change an It's to be more specific.