takata - used 420 as a bogey value. Fill in your real value.
singpilot came up with a good alternative. Another is that there were no more ACARS messages to send. The former is a very real possibility. The latter seems to my untutored intuition to be far fetched.
If the plane was within 20 degrees of horizontal it could communicate any ACARS messages that might be generated. Loss of power could do that. The fact that the plane hit near horizontal with, as I read it, a strong downward component to its velocity and some unknown speed along its heading.
I am not trying to identify why. I am simply trying to identify an approximate range of when. And absent an ability to continue on with battery power, somehow, there are not many things that would have it still in one piece much after 0214. Given a position report of 0210 and a presumption that the plane MAY have initiated a turn slightly before the report was generated where could it have gotten to? First guess is about 40 nautical miles from the position report's position. Within that radius lies the plane if the sessation of ACARS messages means it had no more problems it could report or did report before conact with the water.
If it came apart at FL350, that fits the criterion. If it went onto battery power, that fits the criterion and expands the search area. If it hit the water at 0214+, that fits the criterion. That it was under power and under controlled flight after 0214 does not fit the criterion.
How it got there is another question I am NOT trying to answer. I'm simply wondering "where are the most fruitful places to initiate search for the remains?" I would contend that the most probably circle for searching would be wthin 40 nautical miles of the 02:10:34 position report. Can that be refined? I'd presume yes, with a slightly smaller number, perhaps. I pushed the time range by allowing some delays on generating the reports.
Do remember, a long time ago I asked whether there might have been other ACARS messages cued after 0214. Nobody saw fit to answer that. Can you?
I am open to answers. I'm not open to screaming fits.
JD-EE