Squawk_ident
You got the point.
I knew the mp3 snippet release by the FAB . It's the only official information that TASIL was estimated at 0220. And the controller speaking to Dakar states "Mach 82" But this estimation is not correct at 0.82. It should have been 0211 something like this.
I got the point alright, but I inadvertently used an incorrect ETO ORARO.
The BY INTOL 0133z with ETO SALPU 0148 and ETO ORARO 0200z places a new aspect on what took place during the last exchange with ATLANTICO. The following are the extracted distances and speeds from the BEA report on the track of AF447 with auto SATCOM positions. The mean GS through the period of interest was 467KT, which equates to M0.82 at FL350 OAT -46
°C.
0130Z
..........78.9NM 473KT
0140Z
..........78.0NM 468KT
0150Z
..........77.4NM 464KT
0200Z
..........77.2NM 463KT
0210Z
Looking at the ETO SALPU & ORARO given at INTOL, the reason for ATLANTICO's request for the TASIL estimate becomes clearer. The reason for no response may be a little more sinister.
INTOL 0133
.................122.5NM
490KT
SALPU 0148
.................122.4NM
612KT
ORARO 0200
ATLANTICO have woken up the the large discrepancy, but for some strange reason did nothing more than call the aircraft 3 times on HF with no reported use of SELCAL.
The ETO SALPU & ORARO should have been -
INTOL 0133
.................122.5NM
467KT
SALPU 0149
.................122.4NM
467KT
ORARO 0204
.................119.4NM 467KT
TASIL 0220 (364.3/467) * 60 = 46.8 minutes.
The question I wish to raise is, "What was happening on the Flight Deck?" On the basis of the established facts there definitely seems to be no known reason why they would come up with estimates that are grossly wrong.
mm43