ARFOR:
takata yes I followed that closely. My point, from the 'mapped positions' is:-
We cannot discount aircraft sections separating at altitude based on this drift theory (alone)?
In other words, even if (hypothetically only) the aircraft fuse separated into sections at FL350 or thereabouts, (or anywhere between FL350 and SL), what lateral dispersal could we expect on the surface (worse case)? 2,5,8 - 10nm?
What the "drift" hypothesis is pointing is that the aircraft flew back at some point after 0210, turned and glided back before crashing at a distance of about 100-120 NM from where the first bodies were recovered.
If things happened like that, and in order to glide that far, the aircraft can't have broken at 35,000 ft or below, and the airframe would have to be fairly well preserved until the crash happened (with most of her control surfaces still there). I have no theory how she finaly crashed but a configuration where the pilots may have lost control of the aircraft at some point (like battery exhaustion) is much easily understandable than just because of an unreliable speed event (especially when this same company A340/330 division experienced 9 of this events during the previous 2 years - this problem was know by the pilots flying those aircraft).
Next, the "breaking appart" hypothesiss is based on "severe (forte) to extreme turbulences" which are unproven at the first place. At 0210, the turbulence level of this flight would have ranged from no turbulence to moderate (auto thrust setting). There was no communications about any turbulences from this flight
ever contrary to the tale raported by Air France (1st June) at the same time as the lightning story (none or very few lightning activity reported by meteorologists in the area).
I am not saying a controlled descent was not possible, just pointing out that the dispersal does not definitively say one or the other!
The impact zone, if discovered, will reveal where and when (aproximately) this aircraft crashed and will tell us a lot about how the aircraft managed to end there. This will rule out many hypothesis by this simple fact. No impact zone discovered so far 40 NM around 0210 position is telling us also that the chance that it crashed in this already searched area are not as much probable, but not totally impossible if the pingers are not working for whatever reason.
On this map below, I reported the sea current forecast made 5th June by the French Navy Hydrographical Service (SHOM). Using the vectors and the currents strength level boundaries (up to 0.6 m/s at some points, blue values) , this give this curved line where I reported back the daily positions from d06 to 01 (crash time). Sea surface currents are only one part of the drift vector and the winds are predominently from South-East, which, depending of the weather can build this northern drift vector.
The search area is also reported and is still short of the crash area predicted (about 80 NM South-South-West of Last report).
