Even Though It Is Likely That We Will Never Know, What Can A Prudent Pilot Learn?
Nice as it would be to know exactly what happened and why, we can still learn a great deal from this accident by examining what might have happened.
It is quite likely that they flew unintentionally into a CB.
1. Do we interpret Wx Radar correctly at high altitude?
2. In areas of probable turbulence, is our seat harness secure enough to make us part of the airframe and thus able to concentrate on flying the aircraft?
3. Do we understand the forces involved within a CB?
4. Unreliable airspeed as trained in the Simulator is normally an academic exercise to fly some sort of approach. It does not address the problem of it occurring in turbulence. Can we maintain an attitude on the standby AI irrespective of what else is happening?
5. As Commanders with a heavy crew, when do we choose to take our rest?
6. Engaging the AP at 200’ and then disengaging at 500’ gives the passengers a very smooth ride but it degrades our motor skills eventually. Are our handling skills what they were or what they should be?
7. Most importantly, do we think and plan ahead or do we just react when there is a problem?
The phrase used in almost every airline is that “Safety is our highest priority!!” We all know this is only true within financial limitations. WE ARE THE SAFETY ENFORCERS.
What have I learnt and what will I do different in the future?
In answer to my points above.
1. In the vicinity of CBs at high level, modern digital radar Green is not good. In VMC conditions, in the vicinity of CBs, I will look at the lovely clouds but also concentrate on what I can get out of the radar picture by manipulating the radar controls so that in the middle of the night I will know what the picture may mean.
2. I will use the top straps in anticipation rather than when it happens, I always use the bottom one..
3. I’ve never had a problem with this, CBs scare me. On 3 occasions close to them I’ve suffered the effects of engine icing at TATs below -40°. (warmer than this I would have had the EAI on anyway)
4. I’m fortunate enough to have been trained in the old days, I can remember well enough but these days we don’t train how to cope with limited panel and disorientation. In any case, no matter how good a Sim is, the seat of the pants feelings in there are not real. This is the crux of the matter, something occurred that put them into a CB, they lost control and the main instruments. Having got in there, I doubt may of us would have survived.
5. I have never left the flightdeck when passing the ITCZ unless there has been another Captain in the left seat.
6. I understand that airline managements are accepting that the pendulum has swung too far, we should all be encouraged soon to occasionally, when circumstances are right, fly manually. Even a few minutes of handling will reconnect eyes, hands and brain but we must be conscientious, don’t just fly manually in CAVOK.
7. I’m Old, I’m not Bold but, I’m always thinking, “WHAT IF”.
Possibly this post will be ridiculed, more experienced pilots will understand it, I hope some less experienced pilots will just think, without jumping down my throat.