Squawk_ident
INTOL to TASIL is 364NM and irrespective of the SALPU ORARO intermediate reporting waypoints, the ETA TASIL was 0220z based on M0.82 FL350 OAT 45C. This gives a GS of 477KT -10KT headwind = 467KT
The distance above hasn't been taken from the sector distances on the Enroute Chart, but is the calculated distance. The distance from INTOL to the 'derniére position connue' - last known position at 0210z is
293NM, and equates to an average GS of 475KT which puts the A/C about 1 minute
ahead of estimate, based on the above quote.
EDIT:-
My apologies, I now realize you are raising your question based on the 0133z position report with ETO SALPU 0148 and ETO ORARO 0200z.
No wonder ATLANTICO were requesting an ETA for TASIL! They had already checked AF447 on 6649 and if they couldn't raise them you'd think they'd have tried the secondary HF frequency of 5565.
Going back to the HF frequencies, at 00:36:40 RECIFE CENTER on VHF had already told AF447 to contact ATLANTICO on PRI 6535 SEC 5565 at INTOL. This was later retracted at 01:31:44 when RECIFE CENTER changed the HF frequencies to 6649 /5565 at INTOL and 6535 at TASIL. Once again there seems to have been confusion.
BEA do not appear to have made a comment regarding this discrepancy - it being politic not to say anything pointing the finger in the Preliminary Report.
I suspect the Captain was already taking his rest period when the transfer from RECIFE CENTER to ATLANTICO took place.
END EDIT
Agree but Atlantico had the ETO given by the crew. Respectively 0148 and 0200 but not TASIL and it was needed to relay the ETO to DAKAR.
From where does 0220 come from? ADS-C may be or estimation by Atlantico from the latest radar reception, but if the position is correct until SALPU (0148 under radar contact and the same given by 447) the ETO ORARO is not respected according to what the ACARS has send as we can see from the published position report.
The speed was reduced at or just after SALPU. Why?
ATLANTICO ~ DAKAR audio with the TASIL time of 0220z is on this tape:-
http://countjustonce.com/af447/audio_020709.mp3
But how ATLANTICO derived the time is another matter.
mm43