mm43
INTOL to TASIL is 364NM and irrespective of the SALPU ORARO intermediate reporting waypoints, the ETA TASIL was 0220z based on M0.82 FL350 OAT 45°C. This gives a GS of 477NM -10KT headwind = 467K
BEA have previously published the auto SATCOM 10 min reports transmitted from departure Rio de Janerio up to and including 0210z. Checking the A/C positions would tend to suggest that there was an easterly component in the headwind and the A/C had drifted nearly 3NM left of track by 0200z. Reference to the MET data published by BEA would also confirm an increasing east component in the wind closer to TASIL.
The wind was from east or north until TASIL max 20kt. AF447 was under autopilot and AT and was perfectly on track and time until until SALPU whatever the wind was.
ATLANTICO requested ETA TASIL from AF447 following the by INTOL SELCAL check (01:35:43). There has been no evidence presented by BEA to suggest that ATLANTICO actually tried to SELCAL the aircraft when not receiving an answer to the requested time at TASIL.
Agreed and here lies the problem. If Atlantico had tried to establish contact either via SELCAL or HF later on, either negative or positive answer would have been mentioned somewhere in the report and it is not the case. We have to admit that -1/ the last attempt by Atlantico to contact 447 was after INTOL at 01 36 14 -2/No ETO TASIL was received by Atlantico.
The requested time for TASIL would suggest that ATLANTICO did not require reports at either SALPU or ORARO - probably due to no known conflicting traffic.
Agree but Atlantico had the ETO given by the crew. Respectively 0148 and 0200 but not TASIL and it was needed to relay the ETO to DAKAR.
From where does 0220 come from? ADS-C may be or estimation by Atlantico from the latest radar reception, but if the position is correct until SALPU (0148 under radar contact and the same given by 447) the ETO ORARO is not respected according to what the ACARS has send as we can see from the published position report.
The speed was reduced at or just after SALPU. Why?
The latest known position indicated in the report is at 02 10 34 by ACARS at N2.98 W30.59, that is to say 71 NM to TASIL and about 10 minutes to go to TASIL at the actual speed. At that time and according to its Mach 0.82 the 447 should have been already at TASIL.
Other than ACARS messages that indicate the SATCOM ANT was still locked to the satellite at 0214z, and the rejected attempts by AF447 to log on to DAKAR ATC, the only other recorded contact with the A/C was the last squawk received at 0148z when approx 250NM from SBFN secondary radar.
Agree. It is consistent with the ETO given by the crew until SALPU estimated at 0148.