Flat Spin
At first I discounted the possibility, but I now have to admit it is beginning to fit, given what has been explained by the investigation.
I cannot help but wonder how many of the Airline Transport pilots here have ever encountered a Flat Spin and, in fact, how may might know anything about recovering an aircraft that just happened to enter such a spin, by mistake. Three dimentional filght (as Duane Cole would put it) is not something that is practiced in airliners, is it?
I dont know, but I doubt anyone has any data regarding the Airbus 330 in any kind of spin; something tells me such out of control excursions are considered a thing of the past, but to return to the point, a flat spin has a descent rate approximately 50% of a conventional spin. Thus, from experience, would not be surprised if the descent rate for the aircraft in question was around 4,000 fpm. Isn't that about 45 mph? I admit it could be more, but depending on many aerodynamic factors it could equally be less. I dont know because I have not deliberately spun an A330, nor have i heard of anyone who has, certainly flying through an area of active CB buildup could be considered a good place to start, especially if you have no reference to speed and found yourself distracted by warnings and without the autopilot so many depend upon these days.
However, impact at a speed in the region of 45mph might just fit with the damage evidence recovered to date, what else does? I submit a full spin descendibg at around 8000 fpm would be too fast to produce the evidence found, a spiral dive even worse and a low level stall just does not seem to explain the apparent torque involved in the removal of the vertical stabilizer, whereas a flat spin, just might. It just might answer other puzzels too
Equally, I suspect no one really knows the attitude of an A330 in a "flat" spin and you should not assume "flat spin" equalls flat or horizontal attitude; it is quite possible that the nose could be above the "horizon" and if that is so it is equally possible that the aft fuselage may contact the sea first...
Sorry, but I couldn't help myself...