I am ex RAF and joined up in 1979 during Maggie's tenure as PM. Then the RAF was c. 117,000 (not sure of the exact no but its close enough). I left in the post Cold War options for change in 1989 and have few regrets...
Even back then there were Defence Cuts. Remember John Nott? Then came the Falklands War. Suddenly the Forces were needed and to be fair, losses and attrition in that war were made good, something that can't be said today
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Then came the end of the Cold War and the toppling of the Berlin Wall and this was an excuse for further cuts in the so-called "options for change" review. I recall this being sold to us on the basis of "more teeth and less tail". Then came Croatia, Bosnia, Balkans Ops and the first war that NATO got involved with in Europe. The world suddenly seemed a less stable place to be.
This then is followed by GW1, GW2 and now Afganistan. Where next? Korea, Iran, Pakistan? There's still a lot of "un-finished business" and the withdrawal from Iraq and the peace in Northern Ireland doesn't take away the need for substantial armed forces in the future if we as a country wish to exert ANY influence on the world stage. We need to be credable in forums such as the UN (esp as a permanent member of the security council), NATO, the G8 etc. etc.
The bottom line is we in the armed forces don't set the agenda. Our political masters decide where they want (need) us but don't ever give us either the right tools or sufficient quantity to get the job done properly. It is a case of "more butter or less bread" and I suspect again it will be neither.
Politically it would be suicidal for us to pull out of AFG and allow Al Quaida to re-group and then mount attacks against Western interests on our "home" soil - what would happen to Pak and how would that threaten India? India is important economically (almost as much as China) to the world and what would that do to future world trade?
We are now spending c. 2.5% of GDP on the defence and protection of this country at a time when the external threats we face are real and unlikely to go away. I'm not necessarily meaning a State-on-State conflict but more of the kind we faced in Malaya in the 1950's when counter-insurgency was first encountered. The big problem is a weak political leadership, unwilling to heed the advice of its military advisors, and a Treasury which interferes with "bean counters" dictating policies not just within the MOD but also within the NHS, Education etc. etc.
The £1BN extra cost for the "future carrier" project is largely due to delays to the original procurement schedule and not due to the contractor.
The real question is that 2.5% of GDP is not a realistic figure to fund the armed forces if we are to have Trident, be able to mount "expeditionary" warefare ops, and conduct a war in AFG 3,000 miles from home. Either we, as a country accept a "border protection force" as being the limits of our global presence (or should I say pretence?) OR we agree to fund the armed forces with say 4-5% of GDP and do so on a long-term basis.
4-5% I would argue is both sustainable and appropriate. We waste too much money on things like the Millennium Dome, 2012 Olympics and MP's expenses! That said, MOD procurement needs to sharpen up to cut the waste on Nimrod, A400M etc. But these cost over-runs are perhaps inevitable if the original design criteria is cost and not based on a performance spec. Also, we lose all ecoomies of scale if we don't stick to the original numbers. 6 T45's instead of 12. 12 MR4's instead of 18 etc. We were able to fund the armed forces at this level even in the "austere" post-war period in the 1950's (remember Suez?) what's so different today?
What really irks me now is that even combat losses are not being made up with attrition orders for aircraft that have been lost on ops coupled with the removal (prematurely) of other much-valued assets which had been bought and paid for and still useful in the ORBAT. (Jaguar, Sea Harrier).
Part of the blame though does however rest with out own Service "top brass". A collective protest or notice to offer their resignations, unless resources match the "ask", would get a lot of attention and gain serious respect from their troops. Bring back military hospitals, stop base closures (Lyneham, Coltishall, Scampton, St. Mawgan.......)
Rant over.....MB out!