AF447

[WhyIsThereAir]

Points for consideration

What we can perhaps say that we know with some decent probability at this point is:

- They were almost surely at a known location at 0210 (from the ACARS msg), and almost surely still at FL350.
- They hit icing conditions at about that time that knocked out some combination of the pitots.
- This had various follow-on ramifications in terms of cockpit messages and degraded protections, at the least.
- At some subsequent time they found themselves in the water, within about 30-40nm of their 0210 FL350 position.
- A normal descent from FL350 normally takes more than 30 miles.

We can suppose that:

- There is some indication that they may not have deviated around weather that other pilots that night did deviate around. (The 0210 position does not seem to indicate any deviation, and they were already into icing.)
- They did not deliberately intend to fly in icing conditions
- They may have encountered other weather conditions post-icing event
- They did not intend to land in the water in pieces
- They hit the water in a somewhat horizontal attitude (from the prelimnary report).
- From the 30nm distance made good, we can presume that descent probably began within 10-15 minutes (or sooner) of 0210, else they would have landed somewhere else.

This sequence brings up two questions that seem fruitful:

- What did they hit after hitting icing that caused them to lose control? Is there any answer more likely than another?
- What condition was the plane in as it descended? Stalled? Spinning? Under any sort of control? We certianly can't know, but is there one condition that is more likely than others, if we accept the report's assumption that they hit somewhat flat with some forward motion?

(Edited to change 'conclusion' to assumption' in terms of the BEA report suggesting the plane hit approximately flat.)