Alain Bouillard of the investigating team said the plane probably hit the water belly-first.
They're not sure?
They think the plane was intact upon impact because the debris and bodies have been located within 100nm or more of each other after days at drift and they've found parts from different parts of the plane. Reverse drift charts would show if that range collaspes at ground zero.
The state of the vertical tail is what I've been saying all along, the afterbody broke from around it. The tail didn't break off in the forward direction, the afterbody broke away in the aft direction upon water impact in this case. Until they quit saying 'probably hit the water water belly-first', and say that all damage from front to back of the plane shows consistant orientation of failure, then I'm not ruling out inflight breakup.
Yes, airliners will flat spin with aft cg, and they'll regular spin just fine too.