Skywave
Agreed there will be an upturn eventually and there may well be life in the old dog yet. I just feel that CTC have in the past provided a good product when required at the right time, it may not be able to replicate it's past success when things pick up. That's not me having a go at CTC it's just my feelings on the current and future situation.
You have hit the nail spot on the head on two points; the first being the number of rated and high hours pilots currently on the market, many will almost certainly find jobs before cadets from any FTO. Secondly you mentioned the lucky people that's just it in the near future you need to be lucky.
High prices, high debt for not so high flying.
Roller