Lomapaseo
LOMAPASEO
Agreed. The subject of my post was not on ‘pitot probes’ or something similar.
I was merely explaining that it is not sufficient to divide (catastrophic events) by (fleet flight hours) in order to verify the probability of an event.
What is important in the analysis is to be sure that the probability of an event to develop , for whatever reason, in a catastrophic event is below a certain level.
In our case , is not sufficient to divide one(AF 447) catastrophic event by the fleet FH, but in my opinion we should sum all similar events (the pitot problem that we know that could/can lead to catastrophic events) already happened and sum them in the formula. By this I am not saying that the pitot problem caused that AF447 event. I am merely saying that concurrent pitot problems can lead to catastrophic events , either alone or in conjunction with other more probable failures.