Daniel_11000
it is obviously not necessary to wait and see if the catastrophic event happens.
Reading the thread, it seems to me that many similar occurencies already happened to many of 330/340, and maybe, by pure luck or lack of coincidence of other events, those occurencies never became a 'catastrophe'.
Of course you don't wait to see if you actually exceed the "guideline" But you do consider the likely combinations of all the known causal factors. And if you don't have enough data than you take a more conservative approach with presuming these combinations. That's why the feds are investigating other related events to see what combines together good and bad.
This kind of analysis goes on all the time in large fleets in a proactive manner before a catatastrophe has even happened.
The fact that the AF accident has happened suggests that there is truly something different from our assumptions to be learned here. If that ingredient is so significant than we need to also consider it in combination with other minor system failures as well.
I say again, don't get too wrapped up in simplified theories about pitot tubes.