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Old 1st Jul 2009, 08:05
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Mad (Flt) Scientist
 
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The aircraft isn't going to be "grounded".

And it doesn't require "politics" to interfere.

Per the guidance material for continuing airworthiness in EASA (ACJ39.3(b)(4) is the latest I have here) the probability of a catastrophic event which would require immediate grounding of an affected fleet is 2X10^-6 i.e. one event in 500,000 flight hours.

The current A330 fleet is approx 600 aircraft. Assuming about 50% untilization (which seems to be about the rate for the accident aircraft since delivery) that would imply the fleet is accruing flight hours at about 200,000 fh/month.

There would therefore have to be an expected accident rate of the order of one per three months to require grounding. Since the historic rate is one per ... well, since service entry, it seems clear that the hazard is not sufficient to require grounding by any reasonable assessment of the figures, unless there is something very specific going on (like a production batch issue, in which case only that batch would be impacted of course)
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