At this early stage how can Yates say that with such certainty?
He didn't. He used the words "suspected" and "more than likely". I don't see any certainty expressed.
why are so many 'specialists' so quick to cite weather as a probable cause of two recent crashes?
They're not. The people (on this forum at least) who have spoken with genuine knowledge and authority on these accidents have mentioned weather as a
contributory factor. That's very different from
probable cause.