Beak, to answer your questions. Yes we have seen the upside and downside of economic cycles over the years. I have seen a few in the three decades that I have been working in this role and in this industry. The use of the term "cycle" would tend to imply a measurable quantity, but in fact there are so many variables in the dynamic that it is impossible to predict the duration of these events with any degree of accuracy, or even to predict the spot location in the cycle.
There are however a number of other contributory factors, that I haven't seen in the last 30 years that are very relevant to todays market, and to some extent you have touched on them yourself! I have brought these factors to the attention of my replies in a few other threads, but nobody seems to want to take much notice.
Firstly, it is only in the relatively recent past that there was any real perception that pilots with barely a week full of hours, would stand any realistic prospect of an airline job. There was always an element of specific tailored training that provided a small number of candidates entry into small schemes within the largest operators. However this has now mutated and burgeoned into an industry whereby the "job" isn't a job any more, it is part of the training process. This has had the effect of distorting the pilot job market, such that opportunities for experienced career changers or advancers ( ex-instructors/ Air taxi / third level operators and military pilots,) have been curtailed by the fact that these F/O positions, are no longer jobs. They are part of a pay to fly process.
In theory at least, and all other things being equal, that turnover of pay to fly "wannabes" should eventual churn into a stream of paid employees, to occupy the right hand seat positions left vacant by promotions to Captain. However that has been distorted by the next observation.
Secondly, over the last few years there has been a significant change in the mandatory retirement age for pilots (notably in the left seat) to age 65! In some cases this has allowed pilots to extend their working lives by a further 10 years. When you realize that these 55 year olds are at the top of their careers, usually on (and even drawing) healthy final salary pensions, as well as enjoying the best surviving conditions in the industry, you will understand why so many no longer wish to retire. Coupled with present recession, many will also feel they can no longer afford to. Notwithstanding the higher proportional attrition rate within this 55-65 age group, it has in reality given the industry a 10 year breathing space. This had undoubtably had a significant downward pressure on pilot demand and all but killed it in the lower stratus. A large number of airlines have taken advantage of this situation to completely re-write their terms and conditions for new entrants. If you don't think so, then just take a look at what is happening in those companies that you would aspire to work for.
Thirdly, what pink floyd referred to as High fidelity First Class Travelling, is shrinking at an exponential rate. No more credit for top price brand labels. Discretionary First class/Club class travel is being replaced by the more trendy if less comfortable lo-cost chic. Many top tier carriers relied on this market for their profits. Having seen their futures threatened by its demise ( and the demise of all the specialist premium class operators,) they are now looking to the back end of the aircraft, and to the bread and butter, bucket and spade markets enjoyed by the previously flourishing Lo-Co airlines, and charter airlines, that they were previously happy to ignore. All these big fish are getting hungry and the resources are getting scarcer.
Put all these things together and you have a situation that I haven't ever seen before. A 10 year moratorium on normal demand for captains, a market distortion at the entry level caused by the sale of the First Officers seat to a plentiful and willing supply, and then a severe recession in the global economy.
I don't know any more than anybody else does, how these things will eventually translate themselves into the real world or wider economy, but they are things I haven't witnessed before and the end result will certainly be at best interesting!