I'm going to put my money squarely with Icarus and therefore SH&E. From what I've seen of the plans, their profit forecasts are based on highly conservative figures. Their plans also add up.
In comparison, GF's are based on increasing service quality without spending any money, reconfiguring a/c with more economy seats yet attempting to raise the yield, laying off staff yet improving staff morale, laying of staff yet not having to spend money on compensation - notice a pattern? I'd say if you believe GF's own figures, get into the SH&E-supporting camp quickly!
The question is - will the Air Afrique scenario come into play? In case noone knows, SH&E succeeded in turning round the airline only for the member states (11 of them!) to demand the resumption of their Paris-member state capital services. These services had been canned by SH&E, and lo and behold, the airline went bust. Let's hope the same doesn't happen to GF - for all our sakes.
But, 29th May is the big date.