SaturnV:
thank you for your thorough and very interesting analysis.
I would make several points.
a.) From looking at the plots, the Brazilian Air Force's search grids are systematic on June 1, and between June 2 and 5 are systematic only to the east, south, and southwest of the last reported position. Much of the searching between June 2 and June 5 seems centered on various targets observed on the sea surface than on a systematic grid search.
b.) Why the Brazilian Air Force did not look immediately west or north of the last reported position before the June 6 search grid remains a question. Was this due to the operational limits of the recon aircraft? Did the Air Force immediately focus on the first sightings of possible wreckage?
c.) If the prevailing current was from south to north, why did the Air Force initially expand the search grid to the south, rather than to the north?
d.) Was the Air Force using the meteorology for June 1 and June 2 to infer that the thunderstorm complex encountered by AF447 moved south or east, and that winds from the complex probably pushed the lighter debris in that direction?
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Where did you get the chart showing the surface current speed and direction on June 5 2009?
The charts are part of the SHOM pdf linked previously: Services Hydrographiques et Océanographiques de la Marine,- SHOM, 6 juin 2009:
http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....hom.050609.pdf
For questions a) to d), of course, I can't give you an answer in place of the FAB!
But I do remember that the bad weather somewhat disrupted the SAR and the aircraft were searching at one point mostly where they could make observations at sea level rather than following a rigid search pattern obstructed by the clouds.
S~
Olivier