Excellent analyse altogethernow.
I would just add one thing, no union would be fair enough to act for this fired guy.
In France we have a guy even worse than MOL, his name is M*** R*******, he does not care about work legislation and fired people to "encourager les autres".
No union put up against him, although the cases were quite simple to defend, and the pilots were part of that Union called SNPL.
no pilots helped the guys who in the end were reinstituated by the tribunal.
The only thing BALPA can do to prouve its willingness to protect FR pilots is to defend this pilot using everything in its capacity, including strike by all UK airline if as you all say what happen to FR will affect all UK airlines.
Than probably they will win a ballot.
Leave names out of it.