Folks - since the last pics were posted by Damian (excellent work, by the way) we have had a frenzy of "it's this bit!"/"no it isn't it's this bit"/"it broke off this way" - coming up now to 200 posts.
May I suggest:
There are investigators in S America who can readily determine what and how - far better than anyone here from a photo
All this incredible knowledge and intellect (I am NOT being facetious) SHOULD surely be directed at what started all this?.
Greetings BOAC,
Both true points, however, the problem is that there is just not sufficient information in the public realm to build any single supportable hypothesis about what started this yet. I can easily envision at least 3 different scenarios all with different implications regarding the aircraft, crew and meteorological conditions. I'm sure others could imagine more, many without any foundation in the known facts. Until some fact leading to a more supportable conclusion than that a VSC message implies that frozen water was the culprit (for Pete's sake!) shows up I think we're at a bit of a standstill. We can posit til we're blue in the face but we can prove almost nothing.
It appears that for at least 4 minutes it was phoning home to mother about all the things that were going wrong. No 'sudden' breakup/explosive lightning bolt. The apparent loss of successive bits of important flight information must surely be a one-way street to loss of control with an inevitable consequence, given the time, altitude and weather conditions.
To my eye these would be assumptions we cannot prove. The flight data (airspeed) that we are reasonably certain was lost is that which would have been the most erratic and thus least useful in the conditions that we assume existed at the time. If the conditions were more stable and hence a loss of airspeed information more immediately meaningful then the likliehood of a loss of control would also have been diminished. There is not as yet anything to suggest that all attitude information was lost, which would be the information without which a loss of control would most likely be precipitated. So, if we suppose, as seems likely, that a loss of control did occur, then the big question relating to the ACARS messages is which came first, the instrument failures or the loss of control? Did the autoflight disconnect from an unusual attitude or erroneous airspeed data? Did one precede the other while trying to avoid CBs or did they both happen coincidentally after accidentally penetrating a CB? Without some facts in support how can we engage in any informed speculation?
Where 'this bit and that bit came from and how' FROM HERE - after 20+ days of wreckage release and drift is not actually going to do anything for the investigation. I believe attention to systems, software and pilot training/drills is where we should focus. A thorough understanding of the way these apparent failures interact and are handled would be useful.
Not entirely true. For those of us without degrees in ocean current analysis, or what have you, I'd agree that there's little we might conclude from this having been found here and that being found over there. But, the reverse is not true. Suppose that in the recovered fragments you found significant components of the left and right wings still floating in close proximity? And/or with elements of the tail and vertical stab? Granted almost none of us are trained in accident investgation, but co-location of such components would be strong evidence that the relative sections of the aircraft were close to each other, or possibly attached to each other at impact. So the discussion is worth pursuing in that lacking other information it might give some clue as to what sort of break-up occurred. And, unlike the as yet unprovable theories of how the event originated, the identification of components from the released pictures is something where known facts can be found to support or disprove what is theorized.
None of this discussion is going to solve this sad mystery in itself, but at least when we start talking about things that we can attempt to prove or disprove with available information we are using this forum more as it was intended as opposed to pushing out various personal theories that have no supporting facts.
Cheers,
ELAC