Perhaps the view from down the back is not as clear as from those of us who sat up the front.
... and sometimes my dear "two-winged master" it's all a whole lot clearer by virtue of the fact that as often as not the pilot's head is somewhat closer to his arrse than his crewman's is.
Your statement is as overly simplistic as your argument that there were only two, actionable, scenarios. There are significant questions about the airworthiness of the Mk. 2. The Mk. 1 wasn't exactly the most airworthy of aircraft IMNSHO... There's the possibility of illusion - which it has been determined can't be ruled out... etc. etc...
But you have it all down pat... Good on you.